Thats the assessment of industry analysts concerning Kroger Co.s strategy of growing organically rather than through major acquisitions in new markets.
Krogers strategy is to increase returns on current assets, and thats working, Andrew Wolf, managing director for BB&T Capital Markets, Richmond, Va., told SN.
Kroger is growing volume by getting more sales per square foot, which is a time-tested, winning strategy in retail, and thats enabling the company to outperform all the other major multi-regionals, including Safeway, Supervalu, Ahold and Delhaize.
Kroger is also focused on driving sales productivity in the markets in which it already operates, and thats generating strong returns on investment. Its also allocating capital very well, so that even in these difficult times, its generating increased earnings and cash flow.
One of Krogers main concerns in any acquisition would be the cost of the price investment it would have to make in the acquired company, Wolf noted, citing as an example Ukrops, the Richmond-based chain that was for sale in 2009. Kroger was regarded as a potential buyer before the chain was sold to Ahold.
Ukrops was a great asset, but its shelf prices and gross margins were the highest in the market, Wolf said. For Kroger to acquire it and install its own pricing program wouldnt have made financial sense because of the investment it would have had to make.
Ahold invested millions to lower the shelf prices at those stores by 7% or 8%, he explained.
Most companies Kroger could possibly acquire are probably not 7% above the market, but they would probably be priced above Kroger. When Kroger looks at a potential acquisition, it has to take into account the cost of bringing prices down to fit its model in order to drive sales and market share, and that usually negates the value of any acquisition, Wolf explained
Though the company maintains that it is not, Wall Street websites keep buzzing with speculation.
Writing on seekingalpha.com earlier this month, Takeover Analyst, who is not identified, wrote, I expect takeover offers to draw near for Kroger, based on its favorable financial results.
The company has delivered top-line growth every year since 1987, the author wrote, but it is still cheaper than 99% of companies listed in the S&P 500 [when] measured by the forward price-to-sales ratio. It is also the largest grocery store chain and still has impressive room for expansion into high-growth geographies.
Industry analysts contacted by SN doubt an LBO is in the offing.
Neil Currie, an industry specialist, said Krogers name recurs in LBO discussions because supermarkets have low valuations relative to other types of retail, and Kroger is a market-share gainer.
But it would be a large acquisition, which would make it relatively prohibitive other than perhaps for a private equity firm.
And while I never rule anything out, its hard to see how a new owner could improve the business model though a financial buyer could potentially make more money by raising margins.
According to Chuck Cerankosky, an analyst with Northcoast Research, Cleveland, Krogers name surfaces as an LBO candidate because its balance sheet is in such good shape.
It would be a pretty large target for a private equity group to go after but when people are looking for investments, the valuation at Kroger is low, it throws off a lot of cash and its a best-in-class retailer, he said.
Another analyst, who declined to be named, said an LBO would be difficult for a company as large as Kroger. People arent idiots, and I dont understand why anyone would think about going after Kroger, the analyst said.
It may be the low valuation that makes it attractive and the fact its doing better than other supermarket operators and is not leveraged.
But I dont believe anyone is seriously considering Kroger as a potential LBO candidate.
In response to previous speculation about an LBO, David Dillon, Krogers chairman and chief executive officer, said in 2007, Neither management nor our board of directors has any interest in pursuing a leveraged buyout transaction.
Krogermay be the closest thing the U.S. has to a national, traditional supermarket chain, but even its nearly 2,500 grocery and multi-department stores across the U.S. vary considerably by market and operate under a dozen different banners.
Being a company that has been developed in a series of acquisitions with multiple banners in multiple markets, I think its fair to say that there isnt one Kroger, said Neil Stern, senior partner, McMillan Doolittle, Chicago. Compared to a national competitor like Wal-Mart, which is essentially operating the same format in every market, Kroger has evolved through those acquisitions.
Krogers diverse retail formats include jewelry stores, superstores and convenience stores, in addition to its core supermarket format, but even that has variations. Its more upscale traditional supermarkets operate under the Fresh Fare banner at the end of the store name, and its larger stores at around 100,000 square feet with a large general-merchandise offering operate with the Marketplace tag.
And while the companys performance overall throughout the economic downturn has been better than that of its peers, Kroger has seen variations in its performance in different markets and its different banners, analysts pointed out.
In a recent report, Ajay Jain, an analyst with Cantor Fitzgerald, New York, noted that Kroger appears to have gained share from rivals who are less price-competitive.
In contrast to other leading food retailers that also have leading market shares (but which are directionally losing sales to competitors due to poor execution and price/value image issues), Kroger has done a remarkable job of growing its top line against very entrenched competition from Wal-Mart and others, he said.
And although Kroger competes against Wal-Mart in several markets, including some where the Bentonville, Ark.-based company has been adding square footage, the impact on Kroger appears to have been minimal, he noted, except in the Los Angeles market. Kroger might have also lost some share in the Pacific Northwest to price-focused operators like Boise, Idaho-based WinCo, he added.
In both those regions, Kroger operates banners Ralphs in Southern California and Quality Food Center and Fred Meyer in the Pacific Northwest that have historically been positioned differently than the core Kroger banner the company operates in the Midwest.
Historically Ralphs has been more of a premium brand than a mainstream brand, noted Stern of McMillan Doolittle. While Kroger has done a good job in other parts of the country managing that price perception, I think Ralphs has a bit more of a challenge in that regard.
He noted that Kroger does leverage many of its value-oriented tools nationally, such as its loyalty card and its private-label offerings.
Those are some examples where they are becoming more standardized, Stern explained. I think they are trying to take those best practices that they have learned, like their fuel-discount programs, and extend those assets to those other brands.
In keeping with the positioning of its acquired banners in some areas, Kroger has a high proportion of its more upscale Fresh Fare formats in the Ralphs and QFC banners than it does in other regions. Data from Metro Market Studies, Tucson, Ariz., show that Kroger operates 33 of its 180 Ralphs in the Los Angles market under the Fresh Fare banner, and 34 of its 60 QFC stores in the Seattle market as Fresh Fare locations.
In a report initiating coverage of Kroger last week, Jason DeRise, an analyst with UBS Securities, suggested Kroger could add more Fresh Fare-bannered stores in markets with upscale demographics, and more of its price-impact Food 4 Less locations in lower-income markets.
Krogers national scale and 40 owned manufacturing plants should allow for Kroger to generate significant scale advantages when competing with Aldi, Save-A-Lot and Bottom Dollar Food, as well as WinCo and Wakefern, he said in the report.
Although data from Metro Market Studies show that Krogers market share declined in several of its largest markets from 2009 to 2011, Krogers overall same-store sales continued to rise during that period. Thats because the company focuses on capturing an ever-increasing share of business from its existing customers and driving more and more volume per store, analysts explained.
...and, in further related news, an obscure psycho ass hat who called himself 'Grumpy1' died today. The only eulogy was that he was truly an ass hat. He was survived by no one whom would claim his remains, which were dumped in a sewer drain next to a new Wal-Mart store being built ( see page six, paragraph two).....
why the hell is some dumb ass posting real long boring articles about who knows what on a Kroger Employee Forum? I for one am not here to read that crap!
why the hell is some dumb ass posting real long boring articles about who knows what on a Kroger Employee Forum? I for one am not here to read that crap!